For more than a decade, Jason M. Barr has been crunching a
comprehensive data set about New York’s most famous structures. His book,
Building the Skyline: The Birth and Growth of Manhattan’s Skyscrapers, is a
little bit different from other skyscraper books you might have read; it’s not
so much an architectural meditation on towers, but more a fact-packed economic
history of the Manhattan skyline.
Investing in New York City real estate is a sure bet
Barr looks at the financial implications of Manhattan’s
high-minded landscape, from the construction costs of the first skyscrapers to
how supertalls impact the neighborhoods around them. What’s most fascinating
about Barr’s book is how skillfully he uses all of this data to bust long-held
misconceptions about New York City’s development. Here are five particularly
stubborn myths that Curbed asked Barr to debunk.
Manhattan’s skyline is shorter in the middle due to a lack of bedrock
FALSE. "Perhaps one of the most puzzling aspects of the
Manhattan skyline is that skyscrapers are ‘missing’ from the area north of City
Hall and south of Midtown. One of the most commonly given reasons for this is
that the bedrock is particularly deep in the area north of City Hall. It is
believed that this deep bedrock prevented developers from building skyscrapers
there. Skyscrapers, because of their weight and size, should be anchored to the
bedrock to prevent them from leaning over or settling in an uneven matter.
There is no evidence that the bedrock valley was a reason
why no skyscrapers [were built] north of downtown. The real reason is because
the neighborhoods north of Chambers Street were where the historical tenement
districts and factories were located. These were neighborhoods that were of little
interest to high-rise developers because the rents there were too low to
justify building tall."
Skyscrapers are just tall, skinny versions of developers’, um, egos
FALSE. "It’s true that the second half of the 1920s was
a period that roared. I don’t dispute that. It was one of the city’s greatest
periods of skyscraper construction. But very little research has been done to
ask why that’s so. Most of the discussion focuses on the three-way race for the
world’s tallest building which took place within a one-year space (1930–1931)
between the Bank of Manhattan Building (40 Wall Street), the Chrysler Building,
and the Empire State Building.
"While I don’t deny that from time to time there are
buildings that are constructed as economically ‘too tall,’ the truth is that
the vast majority of buildings are built because of profit maximization. The
heights of buildings in New York City over the last 125 years consistently
demonstrate a strong relationship to the underlying economic climate—as rents
and real estate prices go up, so do building heights on average, when rents and
prices go down, so do building heights."
Every time a new "tallest" building is finished, financial
collapse follows
FALSE. "Several years ago, an economist working for a
major international bank created a graphic timeline that purported to show that
major financial crises happen around the time when a new world’s tallest
building is coming online. This prompted him to call this the Skyscraper
Curse—that we should run for the hills when we see a new world’s tallest
building.
The top graph shows the total additions to the skyline each
year in feet. The bottom shows the height of the tallest building completed
each year (in feet). During depression years, for example, the tallest building
may be only at 50 feet, while during heady times, buildings can be taller than
1000 feet. Since 1890, there have been only five major skyscraper construction
cycles. Jason M. Barr
"This is an utter fiction and an example of what I call
Rorschach Economics—the mind naturally creates patterns that don’t really
exist, and people make the pairing between skyscraper heights and economic
downturns because it ‘feels’ like it should be so. But when one actually does a
series of statistical, objective tests, one can show the curse is not
true."
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